You have AK preflop??
Okay you have AK preflop against a super agressive player HU on the button in a 1/2 game. Effective stacks 200. You raise to 7. He raises to 21. You raise it to 65. He goes allin. What would his hand range need to like for you to call profitably? PS: This was taken from a hand that took place in similiar fashion with LarsLuzak and Phil Ivey. Except... it was 500/1000 not 1/2. Phil Ivey showed TT so it was a 100k coin flip. Lars won.. Hey bigslick havent seen you in a while! Sincity is implying a fold. Sincity is saying there are better spots. However as sabes says isnt this +EV to call? This isnt a tourney! Pokercoach says that this hand was played horribly. Its HU against Ivey! Do you just call his 3bet and pray for an ACE or King?
Public Comments
- Well if he has a pocket pair and your AK are two overs, it is about a 50 50 race. If he just has like QJ, or even AQ, you are way in the lead....but big slick often does not come through in the end.
- The only hand that is better than yours heads up is a pair, if he has pocket aces, which is unlikely, you have the best non paired hand. Without seeing a flop, your odds are pretty good, coinflip situation, might as well call.
- First of all let me say that i just hate A-K is a very strong hand pre-flop, but after the flop or in multi way pots with lots of action it becomes very weak for sure. It also matters if you are playing tourney or cash game as well in how to best play this hand. In the situation you gave it is not so much that you have a range of hands that will get you to call, it's if you are getting the right odds to draw to the hand, plus if the money in the pot is worth the call in the first place. Only ace and kings have you crushed here, and if thats the case its just bad luck. But most times you will either have a coin-flip, or you will have them crushed yourself. In torney play i like to see a flop first when i have A-K, and in a cash game i am happy to push the action a little bit more depending on the table. I had a hand just the other day where it was the right play to fold, even though i knew i was in a coin flip. I had 50k in chips, and was on the button. The other player had 30k, and was a very tight player. She made a raise from early position to 5k ( blinds were 1000-2000) I looked down to see A-k and i made a raise to 10k to see where she was at. she went all-in over the top. I knew that i was either coin flipping or i was crushed. And even though i was getting 2-1 on my money i knew if i lost the hand my whole tourney would be in danger and i would be left with 20 in chips, since i folded the hand i still had 40k. This fold helped me get to the final table. So sometimes the hand may look like the right one to play, think about the impact it can have on you if you loss, as well as the impact it will have if you win the hand. I know lots of times where i let a big hand go, and it helped me win or cash in tourneys.
- You'll remember my detailed analysis of why (both logically and statistically) it was correct to fold AK pre-flop in one of your past scenarios. So understand, I'm definitely not one to advocate overplaying AK. It's usually worth three bets pre-flop, nothing more. However, in this case.... Call. Your opponent could have anything from pocket eights to aces, but may also have A-9 or 10 to AK. If your opponent has any pair other than AA or KK, you're OK. If your opponent has Ace-Paint, you're a big favorite. I don't care to re-calculate the odds on this, but when I replied to your other post, I believe I calculated them assuming your opponent could only have had tens or higher or AK. Since we're now adding in a number of hands you'll have dominated, I'm confident the odds are at least even given the new range of possibilities. Also, by calling here, you send the message that you're not especially afraid of his big pre-flop raises and re-raises. This will slow him down a bit in the future and perhaps provide for an opportunity or two for you to outplay/ steal from him later on.
- You over bet and over value your AK here. There is not much to think of in that situation, it's a cash game are you really going to fold? Of course no, you even re-raise him, it's easy : You CALL. If he doesn't have AA's or KK's you go for a coin flip. Let's not put the % with any cards he can have. Basically...It's what I hate the most about NLH, it's what you see on TV all the time: All-in pre-flop and call.......And let's gamble!
- Considering the 2 players, and the fact that it was HU, the hand pretty much played itself. People are very aggressive HU, especially with any ace. When someone raises, you reraise with AK. Once they move all-in they might have AQ or AJ, but the probably have a pair that isn't AA or KK, so you're getting the odds to race, because of the money you already have invested. Some of the action on Full Tilt Poker is sick. Watching guys like Gus Hansen, Phil Ivey, David Benyamine and other big name pros spash around more money that you'll probably ever win playing online poker is kinda fun.
- Why did you re-raise to 65? Once you do this you are committed to playing the pot for most or all of your chips. Would this opponent raise all in with KQ? This is profitable. Your opponent has something, probably 1010 and is ahead of you by about 7%. Casinos make fortunes on a 7% edge. Watch out for your stack if you continue to play loose against a super aggressive player. Call and let him put money in when you are the favorite.
- if my math is correct, then we are receiving exactly 2-1, 265-130, on the call, meaning that we need at least 33.3% EV in the hand to make the call profitable we need, then, to be up against a hand range whose combined EV against A-K is greater than 33.3...the only hands we can possibly be up against that give us a lower EV than that are A-A and K-K, so basically unless the only hands in his possible range are exactly A-A and K-K then you need to call...if his range is exactly A-A, K-K, and Q-Q then it is approximately a mathematical coin flip in terms of EV against the pot odds, but any other hands included would constitute a call
- Cool Question to think about. First: you are at this point betting to win $265 for your $135 call - a payoff of about 1.96 to 1. Not bad. Second (hence your question): What does the opponent need to have to justify a profitable call? I think that this is a situation that requires you to play the player, and I wish I knew more about him or her, but your asking about the profitability of the call w/basically a 2-1 payout. Look at the possible hands that he would hold: AA, KK - you are totally dominated here. If that's all he'd play, you should fold - your odds are about .09 to 1 I think. And since you have one of each, there are only 3 hands of each of these possible. QQ-22 - If all of these hands are possibly played by your opponent then you should play - even if your odds of winning the hand are 1/1.13, you are being offered a 1.96 to 1 payout. If he'd even only play anything as low as JJ I think that the EV of the bet becomes positive around here - remember, there are 6 possible QQ out there, but only 3 AA. Any non-pair hand except for AKs is dominated by your hand - a fold would be disastrous. Would your opponent play these hands like this??
- Sabes nailed it. You asked about the range of hands, and unless you are CERTAIN that your opponent wouldn't make this play unless he had QQ or better, it's an easy call. If you think QQ or better is probably dead on, I'd still call. As Sabes pointed out, that's a long-term 50-50 for you, and that doesn't take into account ANY possibility of a bluff. Even the tightest players in the world will bluff 5% of the time, or more. So, basically, if you are CERTAIN the range of hands is AA or AA/KK ..... fold.
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